Unsolved

Complete Generic Identifiability in Cyclic LiNGAM with General Confounding

Sourced from the work of Daniele Tramontano, Jalal Etesami, Mathias Drton

§ Problem Statement

Setup

Let V={1,,p}V=\{1,\dots,p\} index observed variables X=(X1,,Xp)RpX=(X_1,\dots,X_p)^\top\in\mathbb{R}^p. Consider the linear structural equation model with feedback

X=BX+U,X=B^\top X+U,

equivalently Xi=jV{i}βijXj+UiX_i=\sum_{j\in V\setminus\{i\}}\beta_{ij}X_j+U_i for each ii, where B=(βij)i,j=1pB=(\beta_{ij})_{i,j=1}^p has zero diagonal and IBI-B^\top is invertible (so X=(IB)1UX=(I-B^\top)^{-1}U is well defined). Directed cycles in the observed graph are allowed: define GdirG_{\mathrm{dir}} on VV by jij\to i iff βij0\beta_{ij}\neq 0.

This setup follows Tramontano et al. (2025).

Assume the disturbance vector U=(U1,,Up)U=(U_1,\dots,U_p)^\top is generated from latent exogenous noise as follows: there exist independent non-Gaussian random variables ε1,,εm\varepsilon_1,\dots,\varepsilon_m and measurable functions gi:RmRg_i:\mathbb{R}^m\to\mathbb{R} such that

Ui=gi(ε1,,εm),i=1,,p.U_i=g_i(\varepsilon_1,\dots,\varepsilon_m),\qquad i=1,\dots,p.

Hence the joint law of UU may have arbitrary dependence (including higher-order confounding) induced by shared latent exogenous sources and nonlinear mixing. The observational input is only the joint law L(X)\mathcal{L}(X).

Fix a graphical model class M(G)\mathcal{M}(\mathcal{G}) specified by: which directed coefficients βij\beta_{ij} are structurally allowed/nonzero (the directed part), and which latent confounding patterns are structurally allowed (e.g., via latent nodes pointing to subsets of observed nodes, equivalently a latent-projection/hyperedge specification). For a directed edge parameter βij\beta_{ij}, say βij\beta_{ij} is generically identifiable in M(G)\mathcal{M}(\mathcal{G}) if there exists an exceptional set of parameter values of measure zero in the finite-dimensional structural parameters (at least the directed coefficients, and any finite-dimensional confounding-structure parameters if present) such that, outside that set, equality of observational laws implies equality of that coefficient: if Lθ(X)=Lθ(X)\mathcal{L}_\theta(X)=\mathcal{L}_{\theta'}(X) then βij(θ)=βij(θ)\beta_{ij}(\theta)=\beta_{ij}(\theta').

Unsolved Problem

Determine necessary and sufficient purely graphical conditions on G\mathcal{G} under which each direct effect βij\beta_{ij} is generically identifiable from L(X)\mathcal{L}(X) in this cyclic, non-Gaussian, generally confounded model class, and construct a decision procedure that, given G\mathcal{G} and (i,j)(i,j), decides identifiability of βij\beta_{ij} in time polynomial in the graph size.

§ Discussion

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§ Significance & Implications

The paper's main theorem is for acyclic models; extending this to feedback systems would cover many equilibrium and dynamical applications. A full criterion would close a central gap between DAG-based identification and realistic systems with cycles. See Tramontano et al. (2025) for details.

§ Known Partial Results

  • Tramontano et al. (2025): This paper proves a necessary-and-sufficient criterion (with polynomial-time algorithm) for generic identifiability of direct effects in the acyclic case, and only explores a generalization to feedback loops.

§ References

[1]

Parameter identification in linear non-Gaussian causal models under general confounding

Daniele Tramontano, Jalal Etesami, Mathias Drton (2025)

Annals of Statistics (to appear)

📍 arXiv:2405.20856, Section 7 ("Cyclic Graphs"), concluding discussion on extending identifiability to feedback loops.

Source paper where this problem appears.

§ Tags