Unsolved

Does the score-matched optimal convex estimator attain the full semiparametric efficiency bound?

Sourced from the work of Oliver Y. Feng, Yu-Chun Kao, Min Xu, Richard J. Samworth

§ Problem Statement

Setup

Let pNp\in\mathbb{N} be fixed. Observe i.i.d. pairs (Xi,Yi)i=1n(X_i,Y_i)_{i=1}^n from the linear model

Yi=Xiβ0+εi,Y_i=X_i^\top\beta_0+\varepsilon_i,

where β0Rp\beta_0\in\mathbb{R}^p, XiRpX_i\in\mathbb{R}^p, εiXi\varepsilon_i\perp X_i, and the conditional density is

yp0(yxβ0)y\mapsto p_0(y-x^\top\beta_0)

for unknown error density p0p_0. Assume the regularity conditions in Feng et al. (2024) guaranteeing root-nn asymptotic normality for convex MM-estimators.

For a convex loss ρ\rho, write ψ=ρ\psi=\rho'. Under this parameterization, convexity corresponds to monotonicity of ψ\psi; equivalently, the source works with an antitone class Ψ(p0)\Psi_\downarrow(p_0) after a sign convention. For ψΨ(p0)\psi\in\Psi_\downarrow(p_0), define

Vp0(ψ):=ψ2dP0(S0p0dψ)2,V_{p_0}(\psi):=\frac{\int \psi^2\,dP_0}{\left(\int_{S_0} p_0\,d\psi\right)^2},

where P0P_0 is the law of ε\varepsilon and S0={x:p0(x)>0}S_0=\{x:p_0(x)>0\}. Then regular convex MM-estimators satisfy

n(β^ψβ0)N ⁣(0,Vp0(ψ)ΣX1),ΣX:=E[XX].\sqrt n\,(\hat\beta_\psi-\beta_0)\Rightarrow N\!\bigl(0,\,V_{p_0}(\psi)\,\Sigma_X^{-1}\bigr),\qquad \Sigma_X:=\mathbb E[XX^\top].

The score-matching objective is

Dp0(ψ):=ψ2dP0+2S0p0dψ,D_{p_0}(\psi):=\int \psi^2\,dP_0+2\int_{S_0} p_0\,d\psi,

and it is linked to asymptotic variance by

infc0Dp0(cψ)=1Vp0(ψ).\inf_{c\ge 0}D_{p_0}(c\psi)=-\frac{1}{V_{p_0}(\psi)}.

Hence minimizing Dp0D_{p_0} is equivalent to minimizing Vp0V_{p_0}.

Population optimizer in the source: let F0F_0 be the CDF of p0p_0, define density-quantile J0:=p0F01J_0:=p_0\circ F_0^{-1} on (0,1)(0,1), let J^0\widehat J_0 be the least concave majorant of J0J_0, and set

ψ0:=J^0(R)F0,\psi_0^\star:=\widehat J_0^{(R)}\circ F_0,

where J^0(R)\widehat J_0^{(R)} is the right derivative. This achieves

Vp0(ψ0)=infψΨ(p0)Vp0(ψ).V_{p_0}(\psi_0^\star)=\inf_{\psi\in\Psi_\downarrow(p_0)}V_{p_0}(\psi).

Sample score-matching constructor for β^cvx\hat\beta_{\mathrm{cvx}} in Feng et al. (2024):

  1. Split the sample into folds and compute pilot estimator(s) on auxiliary folds.

  2. Form residuals from the pilot fit and estimate p0p_0 on each fold (kernel density estimate with truncation used in the source).

  3. Build a preliminary score estimate from the density estimate.

  4. Project this preliminary score onto the monotone cone (implemented via isotonic regression/PAVA in the source), then antisymmetrize in the symmetric-error construction.

  5. Define a convex loss by integrating the projected score:

^n,jsym(z)=0zψ^n,janti(t)dt.\hat\ell_{n,j}^{\mathrm{sym}}(z)=-\int_0^z \hat\psi_{n,j}^{\mathrm{anti}}(t)\,dt.
  1. Compute fold-wise convex MM-estimators and cross-fit/average them to obtain β^cvx\hat\beta_{\mathrm{cvx}}.

Precise meaning of "asymptotically optimal within convex MM-estimators": for any regular convex MM-estimator β~\tilde\beta in the same model class,

Avar(β^cvx)Avar(β~)\operatorname{Avar}(\hat\beta_{\mathrm{cvx}})\preceq \operatorname{Avar}(\tilde\beta)

in Loewner order; equivalently, Vp0(ψ0)Vp0(ψ)V_{p_0}(\psi_0^\star)\le V_{p_0}(\psi) for all admissible convex-score choices ψ\psi, with equality only for positive scalar multiples of ψ0\psi_0^\star.

Unsolved Problem

Does this convex-class optimum already coincide with the full semiparametric efficiency bound for unknown p0p_0? Equivalently, can any regular estimator outside convex MM-estimation achieve strictly smaller asymptotic covariance?

§ Discussion

Loading discussion…

§ Significance & Implications

Feng et al. (2024) establishes optimality only over convex M-estimatorsM\text{-estimators} (under its regularity assumptions). Resolving whether any regular estimator can improve on that benchmark would clarify whether convexity causes a fundamental efficiency gap in this semiparametric regression problem.

§ Known Partial Results

  • Feng et al. (2024): ](#references) proves that the score-projected estimator β^cvx\hat\beta_{\mathrm{cvx}} attains

    inf{Avar(β^ψ):β^ψ is a regular convex M-estimator}\inf\{\operatorname{Avar}(\hat\beta_\psi):\hat\beta_\psi\ \text{is a regular convex }M\text{-estimator}\}

    (in Loewner order, equivalently via minimizing the scalar factor Vp0(ψ)V_{p_0}(\psi)). Equality characterization is up to positive rescaling of the optimal projected score. The paper also reports high relative efficiency (e.g., above 0.870.87 for Cauchy errors) versus the oracle MLE with known error law, but this does not settle full semiparametric optimality over all regular estimators.

§ References

[1]

Optimal Convex $M$-Estimation via Score Matching

Oliver Y. Feng, Yu-Chun Kao, Min Xu, Richard J. Samworth (2024)

Annals of Statistics (accepted; listed on Future Papers, final volume/issue/pages pending)

📍 arXiv v2: Section 3.4 (linear regression discussion), paragraph around Eq. (40) immediately before Theorem 14; publication-status metadata cross-checked against the Annals of Statistics Future Papers listing.

Primary source of the conjecture; Annals of Statistics publication is in the accepted/future-papers stage.

§ Tags