Optimal FDR-FNR tradeoff beyond independent two-group mixtures
Sourced from the work of Yutong Nie, Yihong Wu
§ Problem Statement
Setup
For each dimension , let be a random pair with observed and latent, where means the -th null hypothesis is true and means it is false. No independence is assumed: the coordinates of may be dependent, and the conditional law of given may have arbitrary dependence across coordinates. Let denote the joint law of .
A multiple-testing rule is a measurable map , with meaning reject hypothesis . Define
Here is the number of false discoveries and is the number of false non-discoveries. The false discovery rate and false non-discovery rate under are
Fix . for a dependent model sequence , define
Unsolved Problem
Characterize for broad classes of dependent high-dimensional models (beyond independent two-group mixtures), and determine whether there is a strict asymptotic performance gap between compound rules (each may depend on all of ) and separable rules (each depends only on , possibly with external randomization).
§ Discussion
§ Significance & Implications
Many practically important large-scale testing settings exhibit substantial dependence across hypotheses. Extending fundamental limit theory to dependent settings is important for understanding whether existing procedures remain near-optimal or can be substantially improved; see Nie & Wu (2023).
§ Known Partial Results
Nie et al. (2026): The paper resolves the asymptotic frontier for the two-group random mixture model (and fixed non-null proportion extensions), including Gaussian location examples, under the model assumptions studied there. Targeted follow-up check through 2026-02-17 did not find a definitive post-2024 resolution of the strongly dependent-model tradeoff question in this generality.
§ References
Large-scale Multiple Testing: Fundamental Limits of False Discovery Rate Control and Compound Oracle
Yutong Nie, Yihong Wu (2026)
Annals of Statistics (forthcoming; listed as 2026 in author publication records)
📍 arXiv v3, Section 6.3 ("Weakly dependent data"), paragraph immediately preceding Theorem 24: "Characterizing the optimal FDR-FNR tradeoff for models with strongly dependent data is an open problem."
Primary source paper; arXiv v3 is the fixed accessible version used for locator text.